Spike in Homicides Began on Mel's Watch

Had Mr. Zelaya been a better president and had there never been a coup, the entry of the Mexican cartels into Honduras and their destructive impact may have been slowed and minimized, but that's about it.

By Marco Cáceres
There is a tendency to blame the spike in crime and violence in Honduras during the past two years on illegal drug trafficking and the growing presence of Mexican drug cartels in Honduras. There is another tendency to attribute this spike to the overthrow of President Manuel Zelaya in the summer of 2009 and the subsequent instability, abuses by security forces, and distractions it led to in Honduras. There is yet another tendency to link the spike to the extreme weakness and corruption of the Zelaya administration and its cozy relationship with Hugo Chávez's Venezuela -- the take-off point for most of the drug-laden aircraft that land in Honduras. There is a high degree of truth behind all three of these tendencies. They are all key factors to the growth in crime and violence in the country. The difference is that the first tendency -- the entry of the Mexican cartels -- would probably have occurred even if Mr. Zelaya had been a strong and good leader without any ties to Mr. Chávez, and even if he had not been ousted.

The fact is that when President Felipe Calderón of Mexico declared war on the cartels in his country on December 11, 2006, he provided an incentive for the cartels to begin relocating their operations to Central America, particularly in the "Northern Triangle" nations of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Had Mr. Zelaya been a better president and had there never been a coup, the entry of the Mexican cartels into Honduras and their destructive impact may have been slowed and minimized, but that's about it.

If you look at the historical figures* for "intentional homicides" in Honduras, you can see that the homicide rates during 2003-2005 held steady at between 30-35 per 100,000 people -- 33.6 in 2003, 31.9 in 2004, and 35.1 in 2005. The rate noticeably grew to 42.9 in 2006 -- the first year of the Zelaya administration. This represented a huge increase of 18 percent. The rate grew to 50 in 2007 (Zelaya's second year) and to 60.8 in 2008 (Zelaya's third year) -- increases of 14 and 18 percent respectively.

The rate grew in 77 in 2009, or an increase of 21 percent. That was the year Mr. Zelaya was removed from office and Honduras was condemned by the international community. For six months, the country was left almost completely isolated, as nearly all nations cut off diplomatic and trade relations, and almost all foreign assistance and credit was suspended.

In 2010 and 2011 (the first two years under President Porfirio Lobo), the homicide rates in Honduras continued to rise, but by much smaller rates of 6 and 4.5 percent respectively.

In short, those who blame the Zelaya government for the spike in crime and violence have plenty of data to support their argument. Those who blame the coup can also point to data to back their case. Again, though, both arguments are relative ones easily drowned out by the inevitability of the growth of crime and violence in Honduras, given President Calderón's war... and of course the ever-present US consumer demand for drugs.

The irony of it all is that it is the Lobo government, which has presided over a significant slowdown in the growth of the homicide rate, that has gotten the brunt of the blame because the numbers have reached such an astronomical level. (1/30/12) (photo of Manuel Zelaya courtesy Internet)

* based on data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and published press reports

Note: The author is the editor and cofounder of Honduras Weekly. He is also the cofounder of projecthonduras.com, an international network of volunteers involved in humanitarian development projects aimed at empowering the people of Honduras. He directs the annual Conference on Honduras in the town of Copán Ruinas in northwestern Honduras. He was born in Tegucigalpa.